We’re several months away from the 2018 midterms and there are reasons to believe that the much-promised “blue wave” might, in fact, become more of a blue trickle.
In the latest ABC/Washington Post Congressional Generic Poll, Republicans have closed the gap to just four percentage points, a 47 percent to 44 percent approval for Democrats over the GOP. In January, Democrats held double-digit leads in most generic polls.
But even more concerning for the blue team: The enthusiasm gap flipped. Liberals might be turning out to march and protest, but when asked if they are very likely to vote in the midterms, 74 percent of Republicans are answering that they will definitely vote, versus just 68 percent of Democrats.
Now, a snapshot poll six months away from the elections isn’t the end of the game. Republican candidates still have to run quality campaigns focused on winning over voters. Let’s be honest, the GOP has, on occasion, figured out a way to snatch an election or two from the jaws of victory.
It’s not inconceivable for Democrats to gain 15 to 20 seats in the House, lose seats in the Senate, and find themselves in the minority still in 2019. All of those marches, lawsuits, exposes and leaks will have all been feel-good distractions instead of soul-searching moments. Of course, if the left loses in 2018, they would want to finally drop Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) as House minority leader but, at that point, does it really matter?
She’d be replaced by someone just as left of mainstream Americans, maybe even more so, and the party will go even further left. It’s perhaps only when Democrats lose a soul-shattering presidential election in 2020 that there potentially will be a wake-up call, when all the excuses will be dropped and the adults step back into the room and make it the party of JFK again.