As we come down the homestretch for the 2018 midterms, people are looking at congressional generic ballots and debating whether or not the Democrats will take back the House. By now, thanks to the Senate Democrats’ Brett Kavanaugh escapade, most rational people are starting to realize that the Senate has probably slipped away from the Democrats. Republicans will likely hold all their toss up seats in Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee and gain two to four seats with the likely pickups in North Dakota, Missouri, and Florida, and potential outliers in Montana, Indiana, Minnesota, and New Jersey.
Strangely (or not!) these political realities are escaping the notice of mainstream media outlets. With the dynamics of this midterm shifted considerably in the wake of the Kavanaugh hearings (call it the Kavanaugh Effect), one could be excused for thinking that some entities are conducting psychological warfare via public opinion polls. This is especially true with congressional generic ballots. Most people only see or hear the blaring top line of a poll: “Democrats leading in congressional generic ballot by 13 points!” and assume that somehow those numbers are a legitimate and accurate presentation of political reality.
But that’s not always so.